Current forecasts likely underestimate geographic climate risk. If AMOC-driven disruption materializes, Caltagirone’s present revenue structure looks overexposed to Northern Europe, and its Italian growth prospects—while positive—would not be sufficient to fully offset a collapse in its top markets.
Hi there, good job on the write up. I have a question, we see from your analysis that CALT is mostly a bet on Cementir - the other holdings are not significant or could even lead to slight losses in bad years - every holding as a discount naturally applied. So my question is simple, why buy CALT instead of Cementir directly which remains quite cheap? thanks for your answer in advance
Yes, Cementir is trading at a discount, but I opted for Caltagirone because at the time it offered more upside, despite being a holding company that almost always trades at a discount (my average price is €7 per share). Domus could also be interesting going forward within the group, given the housing theme in Europe, and on the infrastructure side, Vianini could gain traction thanks to increased investment. On top of that, you also have several million euros of value from the two bank stakes.
Both are trading cheap, along with several other companies in the sector. Cementir has a strong market position, generates cash, and trades at low multiples. I value it slightly above €20 per share (at the time of writing it was trading at €13.20), and so far this year it has risen 34.54%, very close to Buzzi’s 30.65%. Overall, the cement sector remains attractively undervalued.
Fascinating deep dive. Global niche leader trading at a steep discount, hidden inside a family-controlled holding that the market barely looks at. Classic case of complexity and illiquidity masking real cash-flow power.... What do you want in life when you have that?
Current forecasts likely underestimate geographic climate risk. If AMOC-driven disruption materializes, Caltagirone’s present revenue structure looks overexposed to Northern Europe, and its Italian growth prospects—while positive—would not be sufficient to fully offset a collapse in its top markets.
I am aware of the risk and believe it is worth taking. I don’t foresee a complete collapse, but anything is possible. Thank you for your comment.
Hi there, good job on the write up. I have a question, we see from your analysis that CALT is mostly a bet on Cementir - the other holdings are not significant or could even lead to slight losses in bad years - every holding as a discount naturally applied. So my question is simple, why buy CALT instead of Cementir directly which remains quite cheap? thanks for your answer in advance
Thanks!
Yes, Cementir is trading at a discount, but I opted for Caltagirone because at the time it offered more upside, despite being a holding company that almost always trades at a discount (my average price is €7 per share). Domus could also be interesting going forward within the group, given the housing theme in Europe, and on the infrastructure side, Vianini could gain traction thanks to increased investment. On top of that, you also have several million euros of value from the two bank stakes.
Where do you see that huge discount to other cement players? e.g. Buzzi s.p.a trades at 9,77x PE and 16,14x MC/FCF
Both are trading cheap, along with several other companies in the sector. Cementir has a strong market position, generates cash, and trades at low multiples. I value it slightly above €20 per share (at the time of writing it was trading at €13.20), and so far this year it has risen 34.54%, very close to Buzzi’s 30.65%. Overall, the cement sector remains attractively undervalued.
Fascinating deep dive. Global niche leader trading at a steep discount, hidden inside a family-controlled holding that the market barely looks at. Classic case of complexity and illiquidity masking real cash-flow power.... What do you want in life when you have that?
Thanks! It’s a pretty interesting company. Happy you enjoyed the write-up!
As retail investors, we can take advantage of these kinds of companies.
Absolutely.