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Investing Lawyer's avatar

Beautiful 📈📉

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smallvalue's avatar

Thank you! Glad you enjoyed it.

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The Capital Chronicle's avatar

Very good analysis, thanks. I'm coming to a similar DCF and conclusion as you.

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smallvalue's avatar

Merry Christmas! I’m glad to hear that. I have a few additional scenarios to consider, but if the basic one aligns closely with your perspective, that’s an encouraging signal.

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Wubbe Bos's avatar

Interesting take. What value do you think Olvi gets from it's Belarusian subsidiary?

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smallvalue's avatar

Thanks for your comment! Olvi's Belarusian subsidiary, Lidskoe Pivo, could be valued between EUR 150 million and EUR 200 million based on its 2023 operating result of EUR 25.1 million and an EBIT multiple of 6x to 8x. However, geopolitical risks, regulatory issues, and a EUR 35 million impairment in 2022 may lower this valuation. I would apply a 40% discount for these factors, suggesting a more realistic value of EUR 90-102 million. Future performance could increase the value, but uncertainty around the final discount remains. For sure, if Olvi sells its Belarusian subsidiary, it will face a significant discount.

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Joel Sherwood's avatar

Thanks for this one, great find.

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smallvalue's avatar

Appreciate your commentary. Glad it was helpful!

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